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How Reliable Are Hog Futures as Forecasts?
Author(s) -
Carter Colin A.,
Mohapatra Sandeep
Publication year - 2008
Publication title -
american journal of agricultural economics
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.949
H-Index - 111
eISSN - 1467-8276
pISSN - 0002-9092
DOI - 10.1111/j.1467-8276.2007.01122.x
Subject(s) - futures contract , cash , futures market , economics , financial economics , commodity , forward market , econometrics , finance
The Chicago Mercantile Exchange hog futures contract was revamped in 1997 and it is one of the largest futures markets for a nonstorable commodity. The literature is divided on whether or not futures prices for nonstorables provide reliable forecasts of cash prices. We find that from 1998 to 2004, the hog futures market was an unbiased predictor of cash prices.