Premium
The Working Curve and Commodity Storage under Backwardation
Author(s) -
Carter Colin A.,
Giha Cesar L. Revoredo
Publication year - 2007
Publication title -
american journal of agricultural economics
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.949
H-Index - 111
eISSN - 1467-8276
pISSN - 0002-9092
DOI - 10.1111/j.1467-8276.2007.01021.x
Subject(s) - normal backwardation , stylized fact , contango , commodity , economics , econometrics , financial economics , futures contract , macroeconomics , finance
There remains controversy over whether the empirical curve relating intertemporal commodity price spreads and stocks, originally drawn by Holbrook Working in 1933 (i.e., the Working curve), is a valid stylized fact in commodity markets. The core of the controversy is the portion of the curve representing commodity stocks under backwardation. In this article we analyze the original data used by Working, plus more disaggregated numbers. We find that the Working curve is indeed valid. The diversity of stockholders and different stockholding motives most likely explain the empirical Working curve relationship.