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The Performance of Agricultural Market Advisory Services in Corn and Soybeans
Author(s) -
Irwin Scott H.,
Good Darrel L.,
Martines-Filho Joao
Publication year - 2006
Publication title -
american journal of agricultural economics
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.949
H-Index - 111
eISSN - 1467-8276
pISSN - 0002-9092
DOI - 10.1111/j.1467-8276.2006.00845.x
Subject(s) - hindsight bias , advisory committee , agriculture , business , agricultural economics , marketing , agricultural science , economics , geography , psychology , environmental science , management , archaeology , cognitive psychology
The purpose of this article is to evaluate the performance of market advisory services for the 1995–2003 corn and soybean crops. A new database from the Agricultural Market Advisory Services (AgMAS) Project is used in the evaluation. This database should not be subject to survivorship and hindsight biases. Overall, the results provide little evidence that advisory services as a group outperform market benchmarks, particularly after considering risk. The evidence is more positive versus the farmer benchmarks, even after taking risk into account. Results also suggest that it is difficult to predict the pricing performance of advisory services across crop‐years.