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Global Trade Models and Economic Policy Analyses: Relevance, Risks and Repercussions for Africa
Author(s) -
Ben Hammouda Hakim,
Osakwe Patrick N.
Publication year - 2008
Publication title -
development policy review
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.671
H-Index - 61
eISSN - 1467-7679
pISSN - 0950-6764
DOI - 10.1111/j.1467-7679.2008.00403.x
Subject(s) - computable general equilibrium , relevance (law) , economics , commercial policy , international economics , key (lock) , international trade , macroeconomics , public economics , political science , computer science , law , computer security
Computable general equilibrium models are widely used for trade policy analyses and recommendations. There is, however, increasing discomfort with the use of these models, especially in Africa. This article demonstrates that the results of several such studies of the impact of trade reforms in Africa differ drastically in terms of both magnitude and direction, failing to take account of key features of African economies. It also outlines potential consequences of the misuse of CGE models for policy evaluation and suggests pitfalls to be avoided.