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The Association Between Accounting Determined Risk Measures and Analysts' Risk Perceptions in a Medium‐Sized Stock Market
Author(s) -
Selva Mohan
Publication year - 1995
Publication title -
journal of international financial management and accounting
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.818
H-Index - 37
eISSN - 1467-646X
pISSN - 0954-1314
DOI - 10.1111/j.1467-646x.1995.tb00057.x
Subject(s) - statistic , valuation (finance) , earnings , business , stock (firearms) , risk perception , stock market , market risk , perception , economics , ex ante , financial economics , actuarial science , accounting , econometrics , psychology , statistics , mechanical engineering , paleontology , macroeconomics , horse , engineering , biology , mathematics , neuroscience
This paper investigates the association between financial analysts' risk perceptions and accounting and market determined risk measures in Hong Kong. Analyses from a survey of risk perceptions among analysts reveal that: (1) Accounting determined risk measures, together with a contextual variable, explain 0.77 of the variation in perceptions. The statistic is comparable to those reported for the US and UK stock markets. (2) Analysts perceive higher risk in companies expected to exhibit a decline in earnings. (3) Correlation between perceptions and p‐e ratios is ‐0.74. (4) Correlation between market beta and p‐e ratios/perceptions is not significant. The results suggest that earnings expectations play a substantial role in the formation of risk perceptions and that risk perceptions may be a superior surrogate for ex ante market risk than beta. Implications for stock valuation in medium‐sized markets are discussed.