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Expected Extent and Potential Duration of the World Import Crunch
Author(s) -
Van Bergeijk Peter A.G.
Publication year - 2009
Publication title -
kyklos
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.766
H-Index - 58
eISSN - 1467-6435
pISSN - 0023-5962
DOI - 10.1111/j.1467-6435.2009.00446.x
Subject(s) - crunch , duration (music) , economics , world trade , international economics , financial crisis , international trade , macroeconomics , medicine , art , literature , physical therapy
SUMMARY Against the background of a collapse of world trade and predictions in March 2009 by IMF, WTO and World Bank of a relatively quick rebound, this paper analyses how major post 1980 financial crises have impacted on import volumes of individual countries. The article finds that on average imports contracted by 25% during a period of 5 quarters, but argues that this provides a minimum estimate only for the depth and duration of the present world trade collapse.