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A SPECTRAL ANALYSIS OF THE KONDRATIEFF‐CYCLE
Author(s) -
Ewijk Casper VAN
Publication year - 1982
Publication title -
kyklos
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.766
H-Index - 58
eISSN - 1467-6435
pISSN - 0023-5962
DOI - 10.1111/j.1467-6435.1982.tb01226.x
Subject(s) - kondratiev wave , business cycle , economics , spectral analysis , econometrics , macroeconomics , keynesian economics , economy , physics , quantum mechanics , spectroscopy
SUMMARY According to K ondratieff long term economic growth in industrialized countries is characterized by a 40‐ to 60‐years‐long cycle. The existence of this cycle is much debated. This article presents a spectral analytic test of the long cycle on the basis of price and volume series for Great Britain, France, Germany and the United States. In addition, long cyclical relations between prices and production and the relations between these variables internationally are analyzed by means of cross spectral analysis. The results of these analyses seem to confirm the existence of a K ondratieff ‐cycle in prices, but contradict the existence of a (simultaneous) long cycle in real variables.