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IS THERE A POSTWAR GROWTH CYCLE? *
Author(s) -
Licari Joseph A.,
Gilbert Mark
Publication year - 1974
Publication title -
kyklos
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.766
H-Index - 58
eISSN - 1467-6435
pISSN - 0023-5962
DOI - 10.1111/j.1467-6435.1974.tb01097.x
Subject(s) - stylized fact , business cycle , economics , econometrics , macro , series (stratigraphy) , standard deviation , period (music) , mathematics , macroeconomics , statistics , computer science , paleontology , physics , biology , acoustics , programming language
SUMMARY The existence of a quasi‐periodic cycle in growth rates of major economic indicators has become one of the more popular stylized facts in interpreting postwar macro‐dynamics. In this paper, we examine the statistical record of sixteen OECD countries over the 1950‐1970 period to determine the degree of regularity in movements of annual growth rates in both GNP and several disaggregated components. The W allis ‐M oore test is employed to establish the significance of the deviation of growth rate fluctuations from those of a purely random series. In only 13 of the 90 series investigated were these deviations statistically significant and in only two countries, Germany and Finland, were more than one growth series significantly non‐random. These results suggest that there is little statistical significance to the growth cycle hypothesis from an annual perspective and that postwar macro‐dynamics generally fail to reflect in the growth rate domain much of the regularity observed in the more traditional business cycle of the prewar period.