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A SPECTRAL ANALYSIS OF JAPANESE ECONOMIC TIME SERIES SINCE THE 1880's *
Author(s) -
Suzuki Mitsuo
Publication year - 1965
Publication title -
kyklos
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.766
H-Index - 58
eISSN - 1467-6435
pISSN - 0023-5962
DOI - 10.1111/j.1467-6435.1965.tb02480.x
Subject(s) - series (stratigraphy) , business cycle , economics , lag , private consumption , consumption (sociology) , investment (military) , time series , econometrics , spectral analysis , government (linguistics) , macroeconomics , mathematics , statistics , computer science , physics , political science , fiscal policy , social science , philosophy , spectroscopy , law , computer network , linguistics , sociology , biology , paleontology , quantum mechanics , politics
SUMMARY Power spectra and cross‐spectra of Japanese economic annual series since 1879 or 1887 are estimated. The power spectral estimates suggest that long swings and business cycles are meaningful phenomena in many of the time series. Reference cycles of long swings and business cycles are determined separately from the remodulated series of the rate of change of the individual annual series at the frequencies of 1/25 cycle per year and of 1/6.5 cycle per year. They provide valuable information on Japanese economic fluctuations since the 1880's. The Rostowian stages of growth are considered in terms of these reference cycles. The cross‐spectral estimates clarify the lead‐lag relationships among the series. We find three key factors, loans and discounts of all banks, exports, and government consumption leading the other series and driving the rapid growth. Mechanisms of growth processes are explained by our lead‐lag relationships. The transfer of labour forces among the industries and some characteristics of investment and private consumption are also considered by means of the cross‐spectral estimates.