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Efficiency of football betting markets: the economic significance of trading strategies
Author(s) -
Gray Philip,
Gray Stephen F.,
Roche Timothy
Publication year - 2005
Publication title -
accounting and finance
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.645
H-Index - 49
eISSN - 1467-629X
pISSN - 0810-5391
DOI - 10.1111/j.1467-629x.2004.00129.x
Subject(s) - predictability , league , football , economics , efficient market hypothesis , trading strategy , market structure , sample (material) , market efficiency , financial economics , econometrics , microeconomics , geography , statistics , stock market , mathematics , physics , context (archaeology) , chemistry , archaeology , chromatography , astronomy
Prior studies of the Australian Rugby League betting market report a degree of predictability well in excess of that attributable to chance. However, two important recent changes in the structure of the market facilitate an unambiguous assessment of the statistical significance of predictability and the economic significance of returns to betting strategies. The present paper reexamines the efficiency of the Australian Rugby League betting market under the revised market structure. In addition, a set of measures of the economic significance of trading strategies are developed and implemented. Relative to prior studies, the out‐of‐sample success of the predictive model has diminished notably under the revised market structure; although a naïve strategy betting on home underdogs still performs significantly better than can be attributed to chance. Simulation experiments suggest that the documented level of predictability from several strategies generates economically significant returns.