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An ecosystem model‐based estimate of changes in water availability differs from water proxies that are commonly used in species distribution models
Author(s) -
Hickler Thomas,
Fronzek Stefan,
Araújo Miguel B.,
Schweiger Oliver,
Thuiller Wilfried,
Sykes Martin T.
Publication year - 2009
Publication title -
global ecology and biogeography
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 3.164
H-Index - 152
eISSN - 1466-8238
pISSN - 1466-822X
DOI - 10.1111/j.1466-8238.2009.00455.x
Subject(s) - ecosystem , environmental science , biodiversity , vegetation (pathology) , species distribution , ecology , water balance , climate change , distribution (mathematics) , terrestrial ecosystem , physical geography , geography , biology , habitat , geology , mathematics , medicine , mathematical analysis , geotechnical engineering , pathology
Aim To assess whether the water availability measures commonly used in species distribution models might be misleading because they do not account for the hydrological effects of changes in vegetation structure and functioning. Location Europe. Methods We compared different methods for estimating water availability in species distribution models with the soil water content predicted by a process‐based ecosystem model. The latter also accounted for the hydrological effects of dynamic changes in vegetation structure and functioning, including potential physiological effects of increasing CO 2 . Results All proxies showed similar patterns of water availability across Europe for current climate, but when projected into the future, the changes in the simpler water availability measures showed no correlation with those projected by the more complex ecosystem model, even if CO 2 effects were switched off. Main conclusions Results from species distribution modelling studies concerning future changes in species ranges and biodiversity should be interpreted with caution, and more process‐based representations of the water balance of terrestrial ecosystems should be considered within these models.