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WHAT IS THE PROBABILITY YOUR VOTE WILL MAKE A DIFFERENCE?
Author(s) -
GELMAN ANDREW,
SILVER NATE,
EDLIN AARON
Publication year - 2012
Publication title -
economic inquiry
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.823
H-Index - 72
eISSN - 1465-7295
pISSN - 0095-2583
DOI - 10.1111/j.1465-7295.2010.00272.x
Subject(s) - spoilt vote , presidential election , contingent vote , voting , presidential system , state (computer science) , electoral college , group voting ticket , outcome (game theory) , economics , political science , political economy , microeconomics , law , computer science , politics , algorithm
One of the motivations for voting is that one vote can make a difference. In a presidential election, the probability that your vote is decisive is equal to the probability that your state is necessary for an electoral college win, times the probability the vote in your state is tied in that event. We computed these probabilities a week before the 2008 presidential election, using state‐by‐state election forecasts based on the latest polls. The states where a single vote was most likely to matter are New Mexico, Virginia, New Hampshire, and Colorado, where your vote had an approximate 1 in 10 million chance of determining the national election outcome. On average, a voter in America had a 1 in 60 million chance of being decisive in the presidential election. ( JEL H0)