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INFERENCE USING QUALITATIVE AND QUANTITATIVE INFORMATION WITH AN APPLICATION TO MONETARY POLICY
Author(s) -
JEFFERSON PHILIP N.
Publication year - 1998
Publication title -
economic inquiry
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.823
H-Index - 72
eISSN - 1465-7295
pISSN - 0095-2583
DOI - 10.1111/j.1465-7295.1998.tb01699.x
Subject(s) - monetary policy , economics , inference , econometrics , variable (mathematics) , point (geometry) , probabilistic logic , macroeconomics , computer science , statistics , mathematics , mathematical analysis , geometry , artificial intelligence
I propose a framework for drawing inferences about an unobserved variable using qualitative and quantitative information. Using this framework, I study the timing and persistence of monetary policy regimes and compute probabilistic measures of the qualitative indicator's reliability. These estimates suggest that (1) it is over one and one‐half times more likely that monetary policy is not restrictive at any point in time, (2) Boschen and Mills's [1995] policy index is a reliable indicator of the stance of monetary policy, and (3) certain qualitative indicators of monetary policy improve interest rate forecasts that are based on linear forecasting models. (JEL C22, E52)