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RECESSIONS AND RECOVERIES IN REAL BUSINESS CYCLE MODELS
Author(s) -
BALKE NATHAN S.,
WYNNE MARK A.
Publication year - 1995
Publication title -
economic inquiry
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.823
H-Index - 72
eISSN - 1465-7295
pISSN - 0095-2583
DOI - 10.1111/j.1465-7295.1995.tb01886.x
Subject(s) - business cycle , recession , economics , econometrics , term (time) , duration (music) , keynesian economics , mathematical economics , physics , quantum mechanics , acoustics
We evaluate the ability of a simple real business cycle model to generate business cycles in the classical NBER sense of the term, where recessions are periods of absolute declines in economic activity. We use the “phase” classification of Burns and Mitchell [1946] to determine the “shape” of the business cycle and to look for asymmetries between expansions and contractions. We show that such a model can generate business cycles of plausible duration and depth, but cannot match the actual “Shape” of the business cycle. Nonlinear models, such as Friedman's [1993] “plucking” model may more closely match the observed shape.