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THE DETERMINANTS OF THE PUBLIC DEBT IN THE UNITED STATES, 1953–1978
Author(s) -
HORRIGAN BRIAN R.
Publication year - 1986
Publication title -
economic inquiry
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.823
H-Index - 72
eISSN - 1465-7295
pISSN - 0095-2583
DOI - 10.1111/j.1465-7295.1986.tb01794.x
Subject(s) - economics , debt , inflation (cosmology) , monetary economics , government debt , macroeconomics , keynesian economics , physics , theoretical physics
Barro claims that since the public rationally forecasts and discounts future taxes, government debt does not represent net wealth to the public and therefore does not affect any real economic variables. Then why are there ever deficits? Barro has presented a theory of optimal deficits based on intertemporal tax smoothing. The theory predicts that nominal debt grows in proportion to anticipated inflation, varies contracyclically with respect to real income cycles, and varies procyclically with respect to war cycles. Barro tested his theory using annual American data for 1922‐76 and found weak support for his theory. This paper reexamines Barro's tests, using quarterly American data for 1953:Q1 to 1978:Q4 and finds stronger support for Barro's theory than Barro found using annual data. This paper also concludes that state and local governments do not engage in tax‐smoothing behavior–––probably due to considerations of migration–––and that the debt held by the central bank should be included in the definition of public debt.