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MONETARY POLICY AND LONG‐TERM INTEREST RATES
Author(s) -
WU SHU
Publication year - 2008
Publication title -
contemporary economic policy
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.454
H-Index - 49
eISSN - 1465-7287
pISSN - 1074-3529
DOI - 10.1111/j.1465-7287.2007.00085.x
Subject(s) - interest rate , economics , federal funds , monetary policy , yield curve , monetary economics , bond market , term (time) , bond , bond valuation , quantitative easing , central bank , finance , physics , quantum mechanics
Movements in long‐term interest rates Granger‐cause movements in the target federal funds rate, but not vice versa, during 1990–2001. This implies that changes in the monetary policy stance, as measured by the target rate, are predicted by the bond market. Moreover, even innovations to the target rate have little effect on long‐term interest rates. The policy instrument seems to be responding to information that is already impounded in the bond market. In sharp contrast, during an earlier period, changes in the target federal funds rate are mostly unanticipated by the bond market, and innovations to the policy target have a large and significant effect on long‐term interest rate. ( JEL E52, E43)