Premium
Climate change impacts on tree ranges: model intercomparison facilitates understanding and quantification of uncertainty
Author(s) -
Cheaib Alissar,
Badeau Vincent,
Boe Julien,
Chuine Isabelle,
Delire Christine,
Dufrêne Eric,
François Christophe,
Gritti Emmanuel S.,
Legay Myriam,
Pagé Christian,
Thuiller Wilfried,
Viovy Nicolas,
Leadley Paul
Publication year - 2012
Publication title -
ecology letters
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 6.852
H-Index - 265
eISSN - 1461-0248
pISSN - 1461-023X
DOI - 10.1111/j.1461-0248.2012.01764.x
Subject(s) - climate change , coupled model intercomparison project , environmental science , ecology , uncertainty quantification , environmental resource management , climate model , physical geography , climatology , geography , biology , statistics , mathematics , geology
Ecology Letters (2012) Abstract Model‐based projections of shifts in tree species range due to climate change are becoming an important decision support tool for forest management. However, poorly evaluated sources of uncertainty require more scrutiny before relying heavily on models for decision‐making. We evaluated uncertainty arising from differences in model formulations of tree response to climate change based on a rigorous intercomparison of projections of tree distributions in France. We compared eight models ranging from niche‐based to process‐based models. On average, models project large range contractions of temperate tree species in lowlands due to climate change. There was substantial disagreement between models for temperate broadleaf deciduous tree species, but differences in the capacity of models to account for rising CO 2 impacts explained much of the disagreement. There was good quantitative agreement among models concerning the range contractions for Scots pine. For the dominant Mediterranean tree species, Holm oak, all models foresee substantial range expansion.