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The curse of the Pharaoh revisited: evolutionary bi‐stability in environmentally transmitted pathogens
Author(s) -
Roche Benjamin,
Drake John M.,
Rohani Pejman
Publication year - 2011
Publication title -
ecology letters
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 6.852
H-Index - 265
eISSN - 1461-0248
pISSN - 1461-023X
DOI - 10.1111/j.1461-0248.2011.01619.x
Subject(s) - transmission (telecommunications) , virulence , biology , evolutionary biology , ecology , evolutionary dynamics , evolutionary ecology , adaptation (eye) , disease transmission , transmission rate , clade , stability (learning theory) , zoology , genetics , phylogenetics , virology , gene , host (biology) , computer science , population , demography , telecommunications , neuroscience , machine learning , sociology
Ecology Letters (2011) 14 : 569–575 Abstract It is increasingly evident that for a number of high‐profile pathogens, transmission involves both direct and environmental pathways. Much of the distinguished evolutionary theory has, however, focused on each of transmission component separately. Herein, we use the framework of adaptive dynamics to study the evolutionary consequences of mixed transmission. We find that environmental transmission can select for increased virulence when direct transmission is low. Increasing the efficiency of direct transmission gives rise to an evolutionary bi‐stability, with coexistence of different levels of virulence. We conclude that the overlooked contribution of environmental transmission may explain the curious appearance of high virulence in pathogens that are typically only moderately pathogenic, as observed for avian influenza viruses and cholera.