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Responses of global plant diversity capacity to changes in carbon dioxide concentration and climate
Author(s) -
Woodward F. I.,
Kelly C. K.
Publication year - 2008
Publication title -
ecology letters
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 6.852
H-Index - 265
eISSN - 1461-0248
pISSN - 1461-023X
DOI - 10.1111/j.1461-0248.2008.01240.x
Subject(s) - biome , naturalisation , ecology , climate change , plant diversity , diversity (politics) , global warming , carbon dioxide in earth's atmosphere , species diversity , environmental science , biodiversity , ecosystem , biology , sociology , politics , citizenship , political science , anthropology , law
We model plant species diversity globally by country to show that future plant diversity capacity has a strong dependence on changing climate and carbon dioxide concentration. CO 2 increase, through its impact on net primary production and warming is predicted to increase regional diversity capacity, while warming with constant CO 2 leads to decreases in diversity capacity. Increased CO 2 concentrations are unlikely to counter projected extinctions of endemic species, shown in earlier studies to be more strongly dependent on changing land use patterns than climate per se . Model predictions were tested against (1) contemporary observations of tree species diversity in different biomes, (2) an independent global map of contemporary species diversity and (3) time sequences of plant naturalisation for different locations. Good agreements between model, observations and naturalisation patterns support the suggestion that future diversity capacity increases are likely to be filled from a ‘cosmopolitan weed pool’ for which migration appears to be an insignificant barrier.