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Duelling timescales of host movement and disease recovery determine invasion of disease in structured populations
Author(s) -
Cross Paul C.,
LloydSmith James O.,
Johnson Philip L. F.,
Getz Wayne M.
Publication year - 2005
Publication title -
ecology letters
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 6.852
H-Index - 265
eISSN - 1461-0248
pISSN - 1461-023X
DOI - 10.1111/j.1461-0248.2005.00760.x
Subject(s) - host (biology) , disease , biology , population , ecology , demography , medicine , pathology , sociology
The epidemic potential of a disease is traditionally assessed using the basic reproductive number, R 0 . However, in populations with social or spatial structure a chronic disease is more likely to invade than an acute disease with the same R 0 , because it persists longer within each group and allows for more host movement between groups. Acute diseases ‘perceive’ a more structured host population, and it is more important to consider host population structure in analyses of these diseases. The probability of a pandemic does not arise independently from characteristics of either the host or disease, but rather from the interaction of host movement and disease recovery timescales. The R * statistic, a group‐level equivalent of R 0 , is a better indicator of disease invasion in structured populations than the individual‐level R 0 .