Body size and extinction risk in Australian mammals: An information‐theoretic approach

The critical weight range (CWR) hypothesis for Australian mammals states that extinctions and declines have been concentrated in species with body mass between 35 g and 5.5 kg. The biological basis for this hypothesis is that species of intermediate size are disproportionately impacted by introduced predators. The CWR hypothesis has received support from several statistical studies over the past decade, although the evidence is weaker or non‐existent for certain groups such as mesic‐zone mammals and arboreal mammals. In this study, we employ an information‐theoretic model selection approach to gain further insights into the relationship between body mass and extinction risk in Australian mammals. We find evidence, consistent with the CWR hypothesis, that extinction risk peaks at intermediate body masses for marsupials, rodents and ground‐dwelling species, but not for arboreal species. In contrast to previous studies, we find that the CWR describes extinction patterns in the mesic zone as well as the arid zone. In the mesic zone, there is also a weaker tendency for large species above the CWR to be more vulnerable, consistent with extinction patterns on other continents. We find that a more biological plausible Gaussian distribution consistently fits the data better than the polynomial models that have been used in previous studies. Our results justify conservation programmes targeted at species within the CWR across Australia.