CONCLUSIONS

The cattle cycle of the 1990's that began in 1991 reached a peak in cattle numbers of 103,819 thousand head in 1996. A drought in early 1996 resulted in a more severe cattle sell-off than would probably have occurred otherwise, possibly shortening the consolidation period that often follows an expansion phase of the cattle cycle or perhaps shortening the entire cycle. The increased sell-off of cattle during 1996 was accompanied by the second lowest real net receipts above cash costs since 1913. Total beef production has been above 25 billion pounds since 1994 and was 25.7 billion pounds in 1998, the same as the peak in 1976.