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Bajo riesgo de mortalidad pero alto riesgo de pérdida durante el seguimiento de pacientes pertenecientes al Programa Nacional de Cuidados y Tratamiento para el VIH de Tanzania
Author(s) -
Somi G.,
Keogh S. C.,
Todd J.,
Kilama B.,
Wringe A.,
van den Hombergh J.,
Malima K.,
Josiah R.,
Urassa M.,
Swai R.,
Zaba B.
Publication year - 2012
Publication title -
tropical medicine and international health
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.056
H-Index - 114
eISSN - 1365-3156
pISSN - 1360-2276
DOI - 10.1111/j.1365-3156.2011.02952.x
Subject(s) - attrition , medicine , proportional hazards model , demography , hazard ratio , nomogram , human immunodeficiency virus (hiv) , mortality rate , survival analysis , surgery , confidence interval , immunology , dentistry , sociology
Objective To analyse survival and retention rates of the Tanzanian care and treatment programme. Methods Routine patient‐level data were available from 101 of 909 clinics. Kaplan–Meier probabilities of mortality and attrition after ART initiation were calculated. Mortality risks were corrected for biases from loss to follow‐up using Egger’s nomogram. Smoothed hazard rates showed mortality and attrition peaks. Cox regression identified factors associated with death and attrition. Median CD4 counts were calculated at 6 month intervals. Results In 88,875 adults, 18% were lost to follow up 12 months after treatment initiation, and 36% after 36 months. Cumulative mortality reached 10% by 12 months (15% after correcting for loss to follow‐up) and 14% by 36 months. Mortality and attrition rates both peaked within the first six months, and were higher among males, those under 45 kg and those with CD4 counts below 50 cells/μl at ART initiation. In the first year on ART, median CD4 count increased by 126 cells/μl, with similar changes in both sexes. Conclusion Earlier diagnoses through expanded HIV testing may reduce high mortality and attrition rates if combined with better patient tracing systems. Further research is needed to explore reasons for attrition.