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Vaticinadores socio‐ambientales de la transmisión del virus Barmah Forest en áreas costeras de Queensland, Australia
Author(s) -
Naish Suchithra,
Hu Wenbiao,
Nicholls Neville,
Mackenzie John S.,
Dale Pat,
McMichael Anthony J.,
Tong Shilu
Publication year - 2009
Publication title -
tropical medicine and international health
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.056
H-Index - 114
eISSN - 1365-3156
pISSN - 1360-2276
DOI - 10.1111/j.1365-3156.2008.02217.x
Subject(s) - negative binomial distribution , confounding , geography , socioeconomic status , transmission (telecommunications) , index (typography) , generalized linear model , environmental science , statistics , environmental health , medicine , mathematics , population , world wide web , computer science , electrical engineering , poisson distribution , engineering
Summary Objective To assess the socio‐environmental predictors of Barmah forest virus (BFV) transmission in coastal areas, Queensland, Australia. Methods Data on BFV notified cases, climate, tidal levels and socioeconomic index for area (SEIFA) in six coastal cities, Queensland, for the period 1992–2001 were obtained from the relevant government agencies. Negative binomial regression models were used to assess the socio‐environmental predictors of BFV transmission. Results The results show that maximum and minimum temperature, rainfall, relative humidity, high and low tide were statistically significantly associated with BFV incidence at lags 0–2 months. The fitted negative binomial regression models indicate a significant independent association of each of maximum temperature (β = 0.139, P = 0.000), high tide (β = 0.005, P = 0.000) and SEIFA index (β = −0.010, P = 0.000) with BFV transmission after adjustment for confounding variables. Conclusions The transmission of BFV disease in Queensland coastal areas seemed to be determined by a combination of local social and environmental factors. The model developed in this study may have applications in the control and prevention of BFV disease in these areas.