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Assessment of risk of perinatal death in Jamaica
Author(s) -
Greenwood Rosemary,
Ashley Deanna
Publication year - 1994
Publication title -
paediatric and perinatal epidemiology
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.667
H-Index - 88
eISSN - 1365-3016
pISSN - 0269-5022
DOI - 10.1111/j.1365-3016.1994.tb00499.x
Subject(s) - medicine , logistic regression , cut point , statistics , sensitivity (control systems) , point estimation , cohort , population , demography , obstetrics , environmental health , mathematics , electronic engineering , sociology , engineering
Summary. Data from the Jamaican Perinatal Mortality Survey had been used to create a statistical model using logistic regression. 1 From this a simple additive scoring system to predict perinatal death was devised and tested on the 2 cohort months of the study. The score had a theoretical range of 0–28 points, with the higher the score, the greater the likelihood of a perinatal death. For a cut‐point of 7, sensitivity was 43% and specificity 84%. A cut‐point of 8 resulted in 27% sensitivity and 94% specificity. Higher cut‐points resulted in much reduced sensitivity but enhanced specificity (e.g. cut‐point 10: 11% sensitivity, 99% specificity). However, it is likely that these estimates are optimistically high, and to achieve unbiased estimates of sensitivity and specificity the score needs to be tested on a sample of the population from which it was not derived before implementation takes place. Meanwhile, the cut‐off level for implementation will depend on appropriate resources available.