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A multi‐component model can predict outcome of restrictive surgery for obesity at baseline and 3 months
Author(s) -
ASLAM N,
RASHED H,
MADAN AK,
TICHANSKY DS,
CUTTS T,
JOHNSON WD,
ABELL TL
Publication year - 2006
Publication title -
neurogastroenterology and motility
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.489
H-Index - 105
eISSN - 1365-2982
pISSN - 1350-1925
DOI - 10.1111/j.1365-2982.2006.00789_10.x
Subject(s) - electrogastrogram , discriminant function analysis , weight loss , medicine , obesity , weight gain , surgery , body weight , mathematics , statistics , stomach
We previously reported that a multi‐component model of autonomic and enteric factors may correlate with ultimate weight loss or gain after restrictive obesity surgery (NGM 2005; 17:472). Patients: We report on 39 patients, 4 male, 35 female, mean age 37.2 years, followed for up to 16 years post‐operatively after vertical banded gastroplasty. Methods: Two autonomic measures (adrenergic: PAR and VC and cholinergic: RRI) and one enteric measure (electrogastrogram: EGG) were recorded at baseline as previously described (DDS 44: 74s–78s, 1999). We performed a discriminant function analysis to investigate whether a patient's EGG, PAR, RRI, and VC values could be used to classify that patient as a loser or gainer following weight control surgery. The patients were divided into two categories (10 gainers, 29 losers), depending on the latest weight compared to baseline; discriminant criterion derived from the patient's data was applied to each patient's autonomic and enteric values to determine whether these measurements separated the patients into their true weight category. Results: A discriminate model based on baseline measures successfully predicted ultimate weight gain in 8/10 (80%) of patients who subsequently gained weight and weight loss in 24/29 (83%) of patients who in subsequently lost weight for a total correct classification rate of 32/39 (82%). The same model with data at 3 months post‐operatively predicted weight gain in 9 of 10 (90%) of patients and weight loss in 24 of 29 (83%) of patients, for a total correct classification rate of 34/39 pts (87%) (See table). Conclusions: A multi‐component model demonstrates that baseline and 3 months post‐operative measures can predict ultimate weight outcome from restrictive obesity surgery.Time Predicted Baseline Outcome Lose Total 3 Month Predicted Outcome Lose TotalResult Gain Lose Total Gain Lose Total Gain 8 (80%) 2 10 9 (90%) 1 10 Lose 5 24 (83%) 29 5 24 (83%) 29