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Contenus des prévisions et horizons de contenu pour quelques séries chronologiques macroéconomiques importantes.
Author(s) -
Galbraith John W.,
Tkacz Greg
Publication year - 2007
Publication title -
canadian journal of economics/revue canadienne d'économique
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.773
H-Index - 69
eISSN - 1540-5982
pISSN - 0008-4085
DOI - 10.1111/j.1365-2966.2007.00437.x
Subject(s) - horizon , content (measure theory) , variety (cybernetics) , variable (mathematics) , econometrics , time horizon , series (stratigraphy) , statistics , economics , mathematics , geology , finance , mathematical analysis , paleontology , geometry
. The information content of statistical forecasts of approximately stationary quantities tends to decline as the forecast horizon increases, and there exists a maximum horizon beyond which forecasts cannot provide discernibly more information about the variable than is present in the unconditional mean (the content horizon ). The pattern of decay of forecast content (or skill) with increasing horizon is well known for many types of meteorological forecasts; by contrast, little generally accepted information about these patterns or content horizons is available for economic variables. In this paper we estimate content horizons for a variety of macroeconomic quantities; more generally, we characterize the pattern of decay of forecast content as we project farther into the future. We find a wide variety of results for the different macroeconomic quantities, with models for some quantities providing useful content several years into the future, for other quantities providing negligible content beyond one or two months or quarters.