Understanding how nurse practitioners estimate patients' risk for coronary heart disease: a judgment analysis

Title.  Understanding how nurse practitioners estimate patients' risk for coronary heart disease: a judgment analysisAim.  This paper is a report of a study to examine how nurse practitioners combine information when estimating patient risk of coronary heart disease. Background.  In the United States of America and other countries, nurse practitioners are increasingly working alongside physicians in primary healthcare settings. Given this role, nurse practitioners represent an important resource in early detection of numerous diseases. Understanding how nurse practitioners use patient characteristics (cues) to form estimates of patient risk for disease may improve general disease prevention efforts. Method.  Social judgment theory and its lens model analysis are concerned with the correspondence between a person’s judgments and the environment. This approach was applied to examine how 15 nurse practitioners weighted eight risk factors for coronary heart disease, how accurate practitioners were in assessing patient risk for coronary heart disease, and how much self‐insight practitioners had into their own risk estimation processes. The data were collected in 2006. Results.  Nurse practitioners showed moderate to high accuracy and evinced a variety of cue‐weighting strategies. Insight into their own judgment policies was modest. The lens model analysis revealed that most practitioners had lower values on knowledge of the ecology than they did on cognitive control. Conclusion.  Educational efforts aimed at improving detection of patients at risk for diseases might do better to target increasing clinicians’ understanding of cue‐criteria relationships, than to stress themes of consistency in evaluating patients.