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The relative importance of deforestation, precipitation change, and temperature sensitivity in determining the future distributions and diversity of A mazonian plant species
Author(s) -
Feeley Kenneth J.,
Malhi Yadvinder,
Zelazowski Przemyslaw,
Silman Miles R.
Publication year - 2012
Publication title -
global change biology
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 4.146
H-Index - 255
eISSN - 1365-2486
pISSN - 1354-1013
DOI - 10.1111/j.1365-2486.2012.02719.x
Subject(s) - deforestation (computer science) , biodiversity , climate change , threatened species , ecology , environmental science , habitat , range (aeronautics) , tropics , precipitation , global warming , global biodiversity , ecological niche , species distribution , geography , biology , materials science , meteorology , computer science , composite material , programming language
Tropical forests are threatened by many human disturbances – two of the most important of which are deforestation and climate change. To mitigate the impacts of these disturbances, it is important to understand their potential effects on the distributions of species. In the tropics, such understanding has been hindered by poor knowledge of the current distributions and range limits of most species. Here, we use herbarium collection records to model the current and future distributions of ca. 3000 Amazonian plant species. We project these distributions into the future under a range of different scenarios related to the magnitude of climate change and extent of deforestation as well as the response of species to changes in temperature, precipitation, and atmospheric concentrations of CO 2 . We find that the future of A mazonian diversity will be dependant primarily on the ability of species to tolerate or adapt to rising temperatures. If the thermal niches of tropical plant species are fixed and incapable of expanding under rapid warming, then the negative effects of climate change will overshadow the effects of deforestation, greatly reducing the area of suitable habitat available to most species and potentially leading to massive losses of biodiversity throughout the A mazon. If tropical species are generally capable of tolerating warmer temperatures, rates of habitat loss will be greatly reduced but many parts of A mazonia may still experience rapid losses of diversity, with the effects of enhanced seasonal water stress being similar in magnitude to the effects of deforestation.