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An independent method of deriving the carbon dioxide fertilization effect in dry conditions using historical yield data from wet and dry years
Author(s) -
McGRATH JUSTIN M.,
LOBELL DAVID B.
Publication year - 2011
Publication title -
global change biology
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 4.146
H-Index - 255
eISSN - 1365-2486
pISSN - 1354-1013
DOI - 10.1111/j.1365-2486.2011.02406.x
Subject(s) - yield (engineering) , environmental science , carbon dioxide , human fertilization , agronomy , climate change , crop yield , carbon dioxide in earth's atmosphere , agricultural engineering , chemistry , ecology , biology , engineering , materials science , metallurgy , organic chemistry
Accurate estimates of the fertilization effect that elevated carbon dioxide [CO 2 ] has on crop yields are valuable for estimation of future crop production, yet there is still some controversy over these estimates due to possible CO 2 ‐by‐water‐status interactions in chamber studies and the difficulty of conducting field experiments with elevated [CO 2 ]. This study presents a new method to estimate the CO 2 fertilization effect (CFE) in dry conditions (CFE dry ), based on a combination of historical yield and climatic data and field experiments that do not require elevated [CO 2 ]. It was estimated that approximately 50 years of increasing [CO 2 ] (i.e., a 73 ppm increase) resulted in a 9% and 14% improvement of yield in dry conditions for maize and soybean, respectively, which are similar to estimates derived from free air CO 2 enrichment (FACE) studies. The main source of uncertainty in this approach relates to differential effects of technology trends such as new cultivars in wet vs. dry years. Estimates of this technology–water interaction can be refined by further experimentation under ambient [CO 2 ], offering a cost‐effective path for improving CFE estimates. The results should prove useful for modeling future yield impacts of climate change, and the approach could be used to derive estimates for other species using relatively simple yield trials.