Effects of storm frequency on dune vegetation

In the Gulf of Mexico, barrier islands absorb the majority of wind and wave action from storms, which modifies their dune morphology and vegetation dynamics. Storm frequency is predicted to increase as a result of climate change, yet the effects of this change on coastal ecosystems remain poorly understood. Using estimates of plant growth in storm and nonstorm years from long‐term census data describing the dynamics of dune vegetation on St. George Island, FL, we built a first‐order model that predicts how dune communities will respond to a change in storm frequency. It predicts that an increasing frequency of storms will result in a change in the vegetation across the dunes. The fore‐ and interdune communities are predicted to become more similar to one another through the dominance of a small number of common storm‐resilient species. Alternatively, the backdune community is predicted to become more distinct through an increase in rare species that represent primary succession. Finally, the model predicts that many species will not respond to an increase in the number of storms per year in the same manner in which they respond to current storm frequency. This model is beneficial both for the development of more complex approaches to predicting effects of climate change and for informing preventative management techniques.