Knowing the past to predict the future: land‐use change and the distribution of invasive bullfrogs

Abstract Biological invasions and land‐use changes are two major causes of the global modifications of biodiversity. Habitat suitability models are the tools of choice to predict potential distributions of invasive species. Although land‐use is a key driver of alien species invasions, it is often assumed that land‐use is constant in time. Here we combine historical and present day information, to evaluate whether land‐use changes could explain the dynamic of invasion of the American bullfrog Rana catesbeiana (= Lithobathes catesbeianus ) in Northern Italy, from the 1950s to present‐day. We used maxent to build habitat suitability models, on the basis of past (1960s, 1980s) and present‐day data on land‐uses and species distribution. For example, we used models built using the 1960s data to predict distribution in the 1980s, and so on. Furthermore, we used land‐use scenarios to project suitability in the future. Habitat suitability models predicted well the spread of bullfrogs in the subsequent temporal step. Models considering land‐use changes predicted invasion dynamics better than models assuming constant land‐use over the last 50 years. Scenarios of future land‐use suggest that suitability will remain similar in the next years. Habitat suitability models can help to understand and predict the dynamics of invasions; however, land‐use is not constant in time: land‐use modifications can strongly affect invasions; furthermore, both land management and the suitability of a given land‐use class may vary in time. An integration of land‐use changes in studies of biological invasions can help to improve management strategies.