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Simulation of potential range expansion of oak disease caused by Phytophthora cinnamomi under climate change
Author(s) -
Bergot Magali,
Cloppet Emmanuel,
Pérarnaud Victorine,
Déqué Michel,
Marçais Benoît,
DesprezLoustau MarieLaure
Publication year - 2004
Publication title -
global change biology
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 4.146
H-Index - 255
eISSN - 1365-2486
pISSN - 1354-1013
DOI - 10.1111/j.1365-2486.2004.00824.x
Subject(s) - phytophthora cinnamomi , range (aeronautics) , climate change , quercus robur , ecology , biology , representative concentration pathways , geography , environmental science , phytophthora , general circulation model , botany , materials science , composite material
This study examines the effects of climate warming on one of the most widely distributed and destructive forest pathogens, Phytophthora cinnamomi . In Europe, the winter survival of the pathogen is the dominant cue for the development of the disease it causes to oaks, especially Quercus robur and Q. rubra . The potential pathogen and disease geographic ranges were compared in France between two reference periods, 1968–1998 and 2070–2099. Simulations were obtained by combining a physiologically based approach predicting the pathogen winter survival in relation to microhabitat temperature (in the phloem of infected trees) with a regionalized climatic scenario derived from a global circulation model. Positive anomalies in winter temperatures calculated with this scenario were in the range 0.5–5°C between the periods 2070–2099 and the 1968–1998, according to sites and months. As a consequence, higher annual rates of P. cinnamomi survival were predicted, resulting in a potential range expansion of the disease of one to a few hundred kilometers eastward from the Atlantic coast within one century. Based on this example, the study emphasizes the need of a better understanding of the impacts of global change on the biotic constraint constituted by plant pathogens.