Premium
Combining a regional climate model with a phytoplankton community model to predict future changes in phytoplankton in lakes
Author(s) -
ALEX ELLIOTT J.,
THACKERAY STEPHEN J.,
HUNTINGFORD CHRIS,
JONES RICHARD G.
Publication year - 2005
Publication title -
freshwater biology
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.297
H-Index - 156
eISSN - 1365-2427
pISSN - 0046-5070
DOI - 10.1111/j.1365-2427.2005.01409.x
Subject(s) - phytoplankton , environmental science , dominance (genetics) , climate change , spring bloom , bloom , ecology , productivity , cyanobacteria , spring (device) , climate model , nutrient , climatology , atmospheric sciences , oceanography , biology , mechanical engineering , biochemistry , genetics , macroeconomics , bacteria , engineering , economics , gene , geology
Summary 1. Linking a regional climate model (RCM) configured for contemporary atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations, with a phytoplankton community model (PROTECH) produced realistic simulations of 20 years of recent phytoplankton data from Bassenthwaite Lake, in the North‐West of England. 2. Meteorological drivers were derived from the RCM to represent a future climate scenario involving a 1% per annum compound increase in atmospheric CO 2 concentrations until 2100. Using these drivers, PROTECH was run for another 20 year period representing the last two decades of the 21st century. 3. Comparison of these present and future simulations revealed likely impacts on the current seasonal phytoplankton development. Under future climate conditions, the simulated spring bloom showed an increase in cyanobacteria dominance caused by greater success of Planktothrix . Also, the summer cyanobacteria bloom declined earlier because of nutrient limitation caused by the increased spring growth. Overall productivity in the lake did not change. 4. Analysis showed that these predicted changes were driven by changes in water temperature, which were in turn triggered by the higher air temperatures predicted by the RCM.