Do albacore exert top‐down pressure on northern anchovy? Estimating anchovy mortality as a result of predation by juvenile north pacific albacore in the California current system

Quantifying the mortality of marine fishes is important for understanding spawner–recruit relationships, predicting year‐class strength, and improving fishery stock assessment models. There is increasing evidence that pelagic predators can exert a top‐down influence on prey, especially during critical early life‐history stages. The objective of this study was to quantify predation by North Pacific albacore on Northern anchovy in the California current system (CCS). I estimated the abundance of juvenile albacore in the CCS from 1966–2005 using stock assessment models and spatially explicit catch‐per‐unit‐effort time series. Anchovy abundance (1966–93), both recruitment and total biomass, was obtained from a stock assessment model. Annual rates of anchovy consumption by albacore were calculated using diet studies of albacore in the CCS, an age‐structured bioenergetics model, and regional estimates of albacore abundance. The range of estimates was large: albacore may remove from less than 1% to over 17% of anchovy pre‐recruitment biomass annually. Relationships between predation and recruitment biomass were consistent with expectations from top‐down effects, but further study is required. This is the first attempt to quantify a specific source of mortality on anchovy recruits and to demonstrate potential top‐down effects of predation on anchovy.