Simulating larval supply to estuarine nursery areas: how important are physical processes to the supply of larvae to the Aransas Pass Inlet?

Factors controlling the movement of fish larvae from coastal spawning environments to estuarine nursery areas are important to fish recruitment. In this paper, the role of physical processes in larval transport to estuarine nursery areas in the Aransas Pass region, Texas, is examined using a circulation model coupled with a fixed‐depth particle transport model. Two phases of transport are examined: transport on the shelf to the tidal inlet and transport through the inlet to estuarine nursery areas. Observed pulsing in the supply of red drum ( Sciaenops ocellatus ) larvae to the tidal inlet is significantly correlated with modeled particle supply. This pulsing is not correlated with a specific physical process, but results from the interaction of several factors affecting water movement, including low‐frequency variations in water level and wind forcing. Simulations suggest that the primary spawning region for red drum larvae that utilize nursery habitat in the Aransas Pass region is located north of the inlet. Patterns in the trajectories of particles that successfully enter the inlet reveal that they move alongshelf in the nearshore region and then move into the inlet, rather than moving directly across the shelf to the inlet. The approach path of particles outside the inlet determines the spatial transport patterns for inlets with branched channels and multiple bays. This study demonstrates that physical processes play an important role in determining larval supply to a tidal inlet.