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Using accessible watershed size to predict management parameters for Chinook salmon, Oncorhynchus tshawytscha , populations with little or no spawner‐recruit data: a Bayesian hierarchical modelling approach
Author(s) -
LIERMANN M. C.,
SHARMA R.,
PARKEN C. K.
Publication year - 2010
Publication title -
fisheries management and ecology
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.693
H-Index - 55
eISSN - 1365-2400
pISSN - 0969-997X
DOI - 10.1111/j.1365-2400.2009.00719.x
Subject(s) - oncorhynchus , chinook wind , escapement , fishery , bayesian probability , watershed , otolith , population , ecology , statistics , fish <actinopterygii> , biology , computer science , mathematics , demography , machine learning , sociology
Escapement goals for Chinook salmon, Oncorhynchus tshawytscha (Walbaum), populations tend to be highly uncertain due to variability in, and in some cases complete absence of, spawner‐recruit data. A previous study of 25 populations from Oregon to Alaska demonstrated that watershed size is a good predictor of unfished equilibrium population size. Here this relationship is further developed by evaluating a series of Bayesian hierarchical models of increasing complexity. The model that performed best included a temporal random walk to account for patterns in the spawner‐recruit residuals and life history‐specific distributions for the productivity parameter.