Using weather records and available models to predict the severity of fireblight should it enter and establish in Australia 1

Australia is free from fireblight, a serious apple and pear disease. Published models and weather data from all major apple and pear‐producing areas of Australia were used to predict the possible severity of the disease and losses in production should the disease enter and establish in Australia. The results suggest that fireblight could be severe in most areas in most seasons. In the worst case, with every area affected, this could result in up to 20% losses in apple production and up to 50% losses in pear production.