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Prediction of codling moth egg hatch in Germany and Italy using the Californian forecasting model Bugoff2 1
Author(s) -
BLAGO N.,
BERARDINIS E.
Publication year - 1991
Publication title -
eppo bulletin
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.327
H-Index - 36
eISSN - 1365-2338
pISSN - 0250-8052
DOI - 10.1111/j.1365-2338.1991.tb01269.x
Subject(s) - codling moth , hatching , horticulture , biology , environmental science , west germany , first generation , toxicology , ecology , demography , larva , population , history , economic history , sociology
The effectiveness of the Californian model Bugoff2 for Cydia pomonella was tested in Germany (4 years) and Italy (2 years), the Italian results confirming the German findings. In the first codling moth generation (air temperatures normally below 30 C) good agreement was found between field observations of egg hatching and the model's forecast. However, the model gave notable differences for the second generation, i.e. 3 weeks in Germany and 1 week in Italy, and a significant difference for the third generation in Italy. These divergencies arise from an overestimation of the development rate of the codling moth in Bugoff 2's heat unit table whenever air temperature exceeds the upper limit for development. As a result of modifications to Bugoff 2, an example of a better simulation of the codling moth egg hatch in Germany and Italy is discussed.