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The sensitivity of simulation models to temperature changes 1
Author(s) -
MORGAN D.
Publication year - 1991
Publication title -
eppo bulletin
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.327
H-Index - 36
eISSN - 1365-2338
pISSN - 0250-8052
DOI - 10.1111/j.1365-2338.1991.tb01267.x
Subject(s) - phenology , spurious relationship , population , pest analysis , sensitivity (control systems) , biology , ecology , population model , environmental science , statistics , mathematics , botany , engineering , demography , electronic engineering , sociology
Insect population processes, such as development and reproduction, are dependent upon temperature. Accurate predictions of the phenology and population dynamics of insect pests require accurate recording of the temperatures experienced by the organisms. Any errors in the temperature measurements may result in spurious estimates of the pest population and, therefore, poor quality advice on the necessary control strategies. A simulation model predicting the phenology and population dynamics of the summer fruit tortrix, Adoxophyes orana , will be described. Output from the model closely resembled field observations of the population dynamics of the pest. Experimentation with the model revealed its sensitivity to small changes of temperature. The results illustrate the importance of using input recorded realistically with respect to the biology of the pests.