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Simulation of Epidemics: Problems and Applications 1
Author(s) -
ZADOKS J.C.
Publication year - 1979
Publication title -
eppo bulletin
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.327
H-Index - 36
eISSN - 1365-2338
pISSN - 0250-8052
DOI - 10.1111/j.1365-2338.1979.tb02259.x
Subject(s) - sensitivity (control systems) , disease , computer science , multiplication (music) , mosaic , plant disease , mathematics , biology , medicine , engineering , microbiology and biotechnology , geography , pathology , archaeology , combinatorics , electronic engineering
A review is given of some disease simulation models. There have been 2 schools of thought in simulating disease progress with time. Three further models have simulated disease progress in time and space. The accuracy of the models depends, in part, on the time span (in generations or in days) covered and the overall multiplication over that time span. In these respects, models differ considerably. Spatial models can be used to study the epidemiological effect of multiline varieties and mosaic patterns of varieties. Disease simulation models can be used for guidance in research, disease forecasting, plant breeding strategies, supervised and integrated control, but much further development, including sensitivity testing, is needed.