Premium
An Approach to Determining Potential Pest Distribution
Author(s) -
Baker C.R.B.
Publication year - 1971
Publication title -
eppo bulletin
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.327
H-Index - 36
eISSN - 1365-2338
pISSN - 0250-8052
DOI - 10.1111/j.1365-2338.1971.tb02575.x
Subject(s) - microclimate , climate change , obstacle , ecology , range (aeronautics) , pest analysis , distribution (mathematics) , environmental science , environmental resource management , biology , geography , mathematics , materials science , botany , archaeology , composite material , mathematical analysis
Problems of assessing the ability of an insect species to survive and reproduce beyond the present limits of its geographical range are discussed in order to develop a rational method of assessment for phytosanitary purposes. A better understanding of the day‐to‐day responses of insects to their environment is needed. Climate seems to be the only component of this environment that offers hope of predictable relationships in the foreseeable future. The effects of climate (mainly temperature) on development must be assessed in order to predict the timing of the life cycle, and hence the stage that will be exposed to a particular set of weather conditions. It is suggested that daily increments of development rather than temperature should be summed to allow for the non‐linearity of the development‐velocity curve and the influence of daily temperature fluctuations. The interference of climate with activities such as eclosion, ecdyses, movement, mating and ovi‐position is discussed. Definition of « overkill » situations for winter mortality would be a useful advance in assessment methods. Since spatial variation in microclimate is a major obstacle to development of predictions, the collection of comparable data, especially from ecologically homologous species, is advocated as an aid to assessment of establishment potential. A tabular summary of an assessment method is presented.