Premium
Modelling the potential distribution of endangered P runus africana ( H ook.f.) K alkm. in E ast A frica
Author(s) -
Mbatudde Maria,
Mwanjololo Majaliwa,
Kakudidi Esezah Kyomugisha,
Dalitz Helmut
Publication year - 2012
Publication title -
african journal of ecology
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.499
H-Index - 54
eISSN - 1365-2028
pISSN - 0141-6707
DOI - 10.1111/j.1365-2028.2012.01327.x
Subject(s) - climate change , endangered species , herbarium , distribution (mathematics) , species distribution , precipitation , threatened species , global warming , geography , habitat , environmental science , ecology , biology , meteorology , mathematics , mathematical analysis
Continued harvesting and climate change are affecting the distributions of many plant species and may lead to numerous extinctions over the next century. Endangered species are likely to be a special concern, but the extent to which they are sensitive to climate is currently unclear. Species distribution modelling, if carefully implemented, can be used to assess climate sensitivity and potential climate change impacts, of tree species. We used MaxEnt algorithm for species distribution modelling to assess the potential distribution and climate change risks for a threatened P runus africana , in E ast A frica. Data from different herbaria on its distribution were linked to data on climate to test hypotheses on the factors determining its distribution. Predictive models were developed and projected onto a climate scenario for 2050 to assess climate change risks. Precipitation of driest quarter and annual precipitation appeared to be the main factors influencing its distribution. Climate change was predicted to result in reductions of the species' habitats (e.g. E rasmus et al ., G lob. C hange B iol. 2002; 8 : 679). P runus africana distribution is thus highly vulnerable to a warming climate and highlights the fact that both in‐situ and ex‐situ conservation will be a solution to global warming.