Calibrating molecular estimates of substitution rates and divergence times in birds

Many evolutionary studies of birds rely on the estimation of molecular divergence times and substitution rates. In order to perform such analyses, it is necessary to incorporate some form of calibration information: a known substitution rate, radiometric ages of heterochronous sequences, or inferred ages of lineage splitting events. All three of these techniques have been employed in avian molecular studies, but their usage has not been entirely satisfactory. For example, the ‘traditional’ avian mitochondrial substitution rate of 2% per million years is frequently adopted without acknowledgement of the associated uncertainty. Similarly, fossil and biogeographic information is almost always converted into an errorless calibration point. In both cases, the resulting estimates of divergence times and substitution rates will be artificially precise, which has a considerable impact on hypothesis testing. In addition, using such a simplistic approach to calibration discards much of the information offered by the fossil record. A number of more sophisticated calibration methods have recently been introduced, culminating in the development of probability distribution‐based calibrations. In this article, I discuss the use of this new class of methods and offer guidelines for choosing a calibration technique.