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What Determines Real Exchange Rates? The Nordic Countries
Author(s) -
Bergvall Anders
Publication year - 2004
Publication title -
scandinavian journal of economics
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.725
H-Index - 64
eISSN - 1467-9442
pISSN - 0347-0520
DOI - 10.1111/j.0347-0520.2004.00358.x
Subject(s) - economics , exchange rate , balance of trade , productivity , terms of trade , relative price , monetary economics , variance (accounting) , international economics , real wages , macroeconomics , econometrics , unemployment , accounting
The model derived in this paper yields testable implications concerning the long‐run co‐movements of real exchange rates, relative labor productivity, the trade balance and terms of trade. Countries with relatively higher output growth, trade deficits or improved terms of trade are found to have more appreciated real exchange rates, with the main channel of transmission working through the relative price of nontraded goods. Exogenous terms‐of‐trade shocks are found to be the most important determinant of long‐run movements in the real exchange rate for Denmark and Norway, while demand shocks account for most of the long‐run variance in the real exchange rate for Finland and Sweden.