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Futures Trading Activity and Commodity Cash Price Volatility
Author(s) -
Yang Jian,
Balyeat R. Brian,
Leatham David J.
Publication year - 2005
Publication title -
journal of business finance and accounting
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.282
H-Index - 77
eISSN - 1468-5957
pISSN - 0306-686X
DOI - 10.1111/j.0306-686x.2005.00595.x
Subject(s) - futures contract , economics , volatility (finance) , financial economics , cash , granger causality , algorithmic trading , monetary economics , contango , econometrics , finance
This paper examines the lead‐lag relationship between futures trading activity (volume and open interest) and cash price volatility for major agricultural commodities. Granger causality tests and generalized forecast error variance decompositions show that an unexpected increase in futures trading volume unidirectionally causes an increase in cash price volatility for most commodities. Likewise, there is a weak causal feedback between open interest and cash price volatility. These findings are generally consistent with the destabilizing effect of futures trading on agricultural commodity markets.