Premium
Integration of Stochastic Effects and Data Uncertainties into the Design of Process Equipment
Author(s) -
Knetsch Thomas,
Hauptmanns Ulrich
Publication year - 2005
Publication title -
risk analysis
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.972
H-Index - 130
eISSN - 1539-6924
pISSN - 0272-4332
DOI - 10.1111/j.0272-4332.2005.00578.x
Subject(s) - heat exchanger , monte carlo method , process (computing) , stochastic process , engineering design process , computer science , experimental data , propagation of uncertainty , engineering , mathematical optimization , mechanical engineering , mathematics , algorithm , statistics , operating system
Stochastic effects and data uncertainties are present in any engineering calculation. Their impact may be particularly important if they concern the design of process equipment. A calculation model for the dynamic behavior of a heat exchanger and procedures to deal with the related uncertainties are presented. Their propagation through the calculation by means of a Monte Carlo approach is shown. The temperature at the heat exchanger outlet and the step response of a sudden variation in the heat exchanger inlet temperature are simulated and evaluated by way of example. It is demonstrated that the inclusion of stochastic effects and uncertainties provides a more reliable basis for design decisions and hence reduces the probability of errors.