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A Hierarchical Bayesian Model to Predict the Duration of Immunity to Haemophilus Influenzas Type B
Author(s) -
Auranen Kari,
Eichner Martin,
Käyhty Helena,
Takala Aino K.,
Arjas Elja
Publication year - 1999
Publication title -
biometrics
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.298
H-Index - 130
eISSN - 1541-0420
pISSN - 0006-341X
DOI - 10.1111/j.0006-341x.1999.01306.x
Subject(s) - markov chain monte carlo , haemophilus , subclinical infection , bayesian probability , statistics , random effects model , medicine , mathematics , biology , bacteria , genetics , meta analysis
Summary. A hierarchical Bayesian regression model is fitted to longitudinal data on Haemophilus influenzae type b (Hib) serum antibodies. To estimate the decline rate of the antibody concentration, the model accommodates the possibility of unobserved subclinical infections with Hib bacteria that cause increasing concentrations during the study period. The computations rely on Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation of the joint posterior distribution of the model parameters. The model is used to predict the duration of immunity to subclinical Hib infection and to a serious invasive Hib disease.