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A Goodness‐of‐fit Test for Capture‐Recapture Model M t Under Closure
Author(s) -
Stanley Thomas R.,
Burnham Kenneth P.
Publication year - 1999
Publication title -
biometrics
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.298
H-Index - 130
eISSN - 1541-0420
pISSN - 0006-341X
DOI - 10.1111/j.0006-341x.1999.00366.x
Subject(s) - goodness of fit , statistics , mathematics , type i and type ii errors , mark and recapture , population , likelihood ratio test , test (biology) , exact test , econometrics , ecology , biology , demography , sociology
Summary. A new, fully efficient goodness‐of‐fit test for the time‐specific closed‐population capture‐recapture model M t is presented. This test is based on the residual distribution of the capture history data given the maximum likelihood parameter estimates under model M t , is partitioned into informative components, and is based on chi‐square statistics. Comparison of this test with Leslie's test (Leslie, 1958, Journal of Animal Ecology , 27 , 84–86) for model M t , using Monte Carlo simulations, shows the new test generally outperforms Leslie's test. The new test is frequently computable when Leslie's test is not, has Type I error rates that are closer to nominal error rates than Leslie's test, and is sensitive to behavioral variation and heterogeneity in capture Probabilities. Leslie's test is not sensitive to behavioral variation in capture probabilities but, when computable, has greater power to detect heterogeneity than the new test.