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The old‐age pension law in Mexico: The promise of poverty in old age?
Author(s) -
Colín Francisco
Publication year - 2019
Publication title -
international social security review
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.349
H-Index - 28
eISSN - 1468-246X
pISSN - 0020-871X
DOI - 10.1111/issr.12220
Subject(s) - pension , poverty , capitalization , retirement age , demography , pension system , population , demographic economics , economics , economic growth , sociology , finance , linguistics , philosophy
In 1997, Mexico replaced its main old‐age pension system with an individual capitalization system. In 2021, the first people subject to the new system will retire. Using a model that projects demographic and labour variables and using Monte Carlo simulations, the findings of this study show that in 2051 the percentage of men not having a pension will increase from 38 per cent to 59 per cent, and that of women from 44 per cent to 66 per cent. The replacement rate for the average Mexican worker will fall from 70 per cent to 30 per cent. The numbers of people in extreme poverty will increase by almost 2.8 million, representing 9.44 per cent of the population. Alternative scenarios are proposed that involve increasing the contribution rate and raising the retirement age.